shades fills you in

what the heck is “stagflation”? stagflation = rising prices (“inflation”) and slow growth (“stagnation”)

wait, so how is this different than a straight-up recession? well a recession is low growth -- and high unemployment and low inflation. with stagflation, you have *both* inflation and slow growth -- usa today

conversation magazine explains that in a recession, the fed can boost the economy. but if inflation stays high -- like with stagflation -- the fed can’t do that. sort of like the worst

stagflation is rare, but the u.s. had it in the 70s. fortune mag says to blame the oil shocks of that decade

so what do we do about it?? wapo says you have to raise rates to fight inflation. but that usually means more people are out of work -- and then maybe a full recession

the world bank thinksthe global economy will see stagflation for a while. growth is slowing but commodity prices (eg energy and food) are still high. blame the supply chain and the ukraine war

time magazine agrees. blame supply shocks from covid, the supply chain crisis, and the ukraine war

so does billionaire investor ray dalio. the fed pumped way too much money into the system over the last several years. now it’s trying to slam on the breaks with raised rates. there’s no choice but high inflation and low growth

but the economist says the u.s. and europe have a good shot at avoiding stagflation. unemployment is still really low. and the fed and european central bank are working hard to cut inflation

former fed chair ben bernanke agrees! everyone should just chill, man. this is not the 70s people -- the fed has way more power to fight inflation than it did back then

jefferies’ chief financial economist agrees that worries about stagflation are overblown, at least rn

but allianz ceo mohamed el-erian says we’re already in it! the fed waited too long to deal with inflation. now we’re playing catch up. expect high rates and a slow economy to last for a while

a wsj op agrees. we’re likely headed into a sustained period of slow (or negative) growth and high inflation. blame dem spending in 2021

a nyt op says there are two camps here: team soft landing and team stagflation. the first says we’ll be just fine. the second says we’ll have years of pain. what camp you’re in might just come down to whether you’re a optimist or a pessimist